Friday, April 14, 2006

>Sensex target 14,400<->14,500 !!!

new update: sunday, april 16th 2006, 11:20 pm..

After doing some more carefull analysis over weekend I choose to cancel and with-draw this post.

Would post a different view sometime soon and it would have a more "negative" view.

I am sorry for this 14400 post and here is a promise to post more carefully in future and not to post in haste.


dear friends..

This is a semi serious post ... and directly conflicts with previous ones..

Next target for sensex is in the range of 14400 to 14500 .

The IDEA is that the indian mkt is a phase of serious extensions in the 5th wave up from 4600 area. The 5th wave which started from 4600 in sensex is already extended and the 5th of the 5th is super-extending. (pardon me for this ..!! :p )

Confirmatory trigger: The target gets more credence when sensex crosses 12000.
(Making new high in more style and more speed than the dump.)

Failure Scenario: Sensex under 10500 would mean this idea is wrong.
So we donot have to wait a lot to find out.

Time Frame to target: Max 4-6 months (mostly under 4 months)

AfterEffect: This super display of firepower would suck in even the last suckers (read MF's) and the dump which follows would feel equally more astonishing.

Donot get overly excited with this.
Donot Base your investments on this.
Treat this post just as an educative one.


raj said...

firstly its a guess which doesnt make much sense. Lets agree that no one including best of experts can predict market 100%. Everything depends on inflow of liquidity. this is the only point today. Retail investors are in for big shocks and jerks if not prepared this year. Goodwishes.

Anonymous said...

"Oh! what a web we weave"

The best of traders agree that trading by predictions is not a good practice. tis only a web we weave, and smarter ones do it for others to fall in. Therefore, I would still continue trading at supports and resistances and sincerely follow my stoplosses. I would try not to be moved by all the people out there trying to outwit their competition.

Anonymous said...

hmmm .. New predictions.. I really dont believe this :) For me there should be correction for some time .

Nifty can at the most go to 3600 and then turn down..

Lets see what happens. Also i dont see any reasoning for your prediction, may be elliot / fibo calculations is what i am expecting

rajeev said...

Do let ur name and email id when u make a comment.

Would Help in future communication.

Do STRESS on the FAILURE Scenario and as mentioned this post is just for traders who would like to have an alternate view of what may happen.


Anonymous said...

i do agree with ur view based on elliot theory and those who are not im afraid they need some educative phase to go through .and also would likek to pull this fact that traders need not to bet on such big assumptions.a successful trader is who can ride almost every wave or ripple (short term).elliot works best in short to medium term but for the long term its still argueable.

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot. I felt that u shud have posted the earlier one when the market was likely to cross 12k and I think what is given now is right. Only when regression is done the genuineness of these postings become more valid in b/o b/f.

Anonymous said...

Whoever said that 12000 was not on the horizon

I would not say that this is not possible!!!!!!!

It is very much the possibility, that we may see some very high levels, what I think is that this is just a very conservative approach, which Rajeev has adopted.

Knowing some ELLIOTT WAVE myself, I think that this is very much acheivable.

Elliott wave is a very difficult & subjective matter to deal with. If Rajeev is able to identify the waves properly, then I do think that 14000 can be reached in some time.

My best Regards for Rajeev for his hard work & intelligence. All the best to him on his future analysis.

-Manoj Palod