Friday, October 28, 2011

NSE Nifty Technical Update 28-10-2011


Since our 5350-5400 target has been hit, it is time to re-evaluate the future course for nifty.


For now we remain bullish, till we have evidence to think other wise.

Obvious Bullish evidences..
1. Nifty broke above 5200 (a good resistance) swiftly which further validates our bullish view.
2 .Todays (28-10-2011) volume were at a 7-8 month high.(highest since April 2011)
3. TV commentators have been bearish.
4. Momentum is rising.

Stoploss for Bullish view:
5160 for now. (Stoploss is a absolute must, irrespective of however strong view a trader can have)

If you have any views, I would love to read them, please use the comments below to write.

Chart Attached..


14 comments:

BOND 009 said...

Is the 5160 SL is as-it-hits basis or closing basis?

Rajeev said...

Stoploss is on a closing basis.

BOND 009 said...

Dear Mr. Rajeev,

One more clarification pls i.e. CSL (CLOSING STOP LOSS) is to considered for exiting at 3.25 pm on absolute closing basis or the next day opening after opening one should exit if the mkt has close has triggred the SL. E.g. in the above analysis ur CSL is 5160, say today around 3.25pm
nifty spot is trading at 5150...do v exit today or the next day after opening if previous day's average closing is under 5160?

Pls clarify.

Regards

animoitra2011 said...

Rajeev think a bit of euphoria has just settled in the mkt now .Regds.

Rajeev said...

Regarding stoploss
Ideally whenever the level is hit, exit should be done immediately.

But then people add their taste to it, like..
1. Some may wait for some bounce to exit.. depending on their reading of wave structure or whatever they use.

2. Some may wait for next day. (not advised)

One more point...
People who track and trade closely (specially for futures trade) they would exit at probably somewhat higher (or may be much higher) levels than 5160, due to other considerations arising from trend channel, wave structure, momentum... etc etc.. depending on the trading system.

The stoploss which I give for posting on this blog is the last resort at which the analysis completely goes wrong.
(Even then I try to maintain a good reward/risk ratio here..)

Trading style is a grey area, there are no clear answers.
Much depends on system, risk tolerance, intuition etc.

I hope I could make myself clear.!

Regards
Rajeev

Rajeev said...

Regarding Euphoria..

Everything takes sometime to have its "side effect"...

BOND 009 said...

So finally,

Point taken Mr. Rajeev,

A) if the SL mentioned as 5160 (Nifty Spot) in this case gets hit even in intraday basis, one should exit?

or

B) wait for 3.25 pm, if its closing below 5160 (spot), i.e. even 5158, one should exit then? In this also lps. clarify the consideration of closing SL, i.e. avg cosing (i.e. declared only after 3.40pm) or absolute closing i.e. LTP of nifty spot.

Regards,

Rajeev said...

Dear Bond
To keep it simple.
Exit as soon as the stoploss is hit.

BOND 009 said...

Dear Rajeev,

Thanks...got it! Do you only give positional calls in Nifty? No stocks or Options or Commodities?

You were off this site for a long time and then returned. Pls. stay in touch via your blog.

Regards,

Rajeev said...

Bond, I dont give any trading calls via this blog.
Nifty analysis is an old passion and the charts here are a general directional view of nifty with some targets and stoploss.

BOND 009 said...

Dear Rajeev,

Thanks!!

waval atul said...

HATS OFF TO U SIR...THE BEST ANALIST WHICH I HAVE SEEN IN MY LIFE IN SUCH UNCETAIN MKT....THX RAJEEV SIR

BOND 009 said...

Rajeev ji,

Nifty spot has broken 5160 in intraday. What to do now? Should wait till today 3.25pm to see the closing or just to exit longs now as u had advised earlier? Or any other advice?

Regards.

waval atul said...

sir be little active in the mkt,,,this is the request from me....

ur predictions are always great,,,w8ing for that....

w8ing of ur comment...

visit www.natkhat-nifty.blogspot.com... since long from 4600 with 4530 as closing basis stoploss...now trailing sthe stoploss and holding longs,,, till date 800 plus in the positional long call....

any suggessition is most welcom,,,, i think nifty will touch 6300 before march 2012 as posted on 10th jan 2012 postings... pz review there in the blog,,,

ur predictions and postings are really welcome,,,

thx,,,sir,,, gn...
visit www.natkhat-nifty.blogspot.com

every thing that i learn of ewi theory is from u only,,,

hats of to u again... gn sir