Friday, January 27, 2006
2985 was achieved today. (exceeded 4-5 pts. nse went to 2989.5)
The count I have now is that from 2785 we have done waves 123 or wave 3 is still going on.
Wave 3 is normally the largest wave and can easily extend to 1.6 times wave 1. Also the internal structure of wave 3 is sugegsting more upside left earlier to wave 4 corrective.
2985 target was from Wave 1 = Wave 3.
If wave 3 goes to 1.6*Wave 1 then we get a target of 3055-3060 area.
After which wave 4 wave 5 would also come which would take nifty to 3100.and more. For now lets forget that and focus on this wave 3.
In the diagram we have a sexy channel and i have also put in 3 red lines. (dotted, plain and deep red) and they have the same meaning as usual. (ie. if nifty stays on top of the dotted line it means a lot of power and falling under the deep red line means trend change)
If Nifty does not soon crosses the top is made today at 2989.5 and starts a deeper correction treat this as wave 4. If it continues to move up then wave 3 would end at 3055-3060 area. As waves continue to mold and fold we would continue to analyze.
In NSE we can see one more large channel. Crossing that channel and keeping over it would give more power and validity to the impulsive count from 2785. Also since we are now at top of the wide channel it gets more important to remain alert to deep retracements which crack under the red lines. If it retraces too much take it as a clue that we got error in the count. (imporant to look at larger structures, so this idea is included)
NSEBANK for which I had posted a chart earlier didnot crack the imp lines and went up very impulsively.
Updated image is attached. The move is NSEBANK should last for much longer time and this gives credence to the nifty count also that NSE still has a lot more to go in coming days.
An important thing to what out for.
If a stock/index has exceeded its previous top in this rally and remains greater than that top we can consider trend to remain up.
When the stock/index start to crack the previous high we know something is wrong. This is a very useful idea and is productively used in trading.
Have a view. Feel free to comment.